Geospatial simulation

Degraded Constellation

Counterspace effects on space-based nuclear command, control, and communications in a Taiwan Strait contingency. Simulate PLA direct-ascent and co-orbital ASAT engagements to observe missile warning coverage degradation and escalation pressure dynamics.

Alyssa I. Agard · Agard Research Associates, Inc.

Scenario
PLA counterspace operations during opening phase of cross-strait operations against Taiwan
Assets modeled
SBIRS GEO constellation (3 assets) and Next-Gen OPIR transition satellites (2 assets) in geosynchronous orbit
Threat vector
Direct-ascent ASAT (DN-3) and co-orbital engagement from Xichang, Jiuquan, and Korla launch facilities
Analytical framework
Acton's damage-limitation window and misinterpreted warning pathways applied to dual-use NC3 degradation
Natural Earth projection · Approximate coverage footprints
This simulation uses approximate satellite positions and simplified coverage geometry for analytical illustration. Actual SBIRS and OPIR orbital parameters, sensor specifications, and coverage footprints are classified. Coverage radii reflect publicly available estimates of geosynchronous missile warning sensor geometry. PLA ASAT launch site coordinates are derived from open-source intelligence.

Companion to "Deterrence in Orbit: PLA Counterspace Doctrine, JADO, and the Vulnerability of Space-Based Nuclear Command and Control" by Alyssa I. Agard.